Back with a vengeance
By: Ian | January 23rd, 2009The San Jose Offside is back from its holiday break, and all I have to say is: what happened to the Quakes while I was gone? Â The Cannon saga was thankfully concluded with The Joe remaining in San Jose as he should, but it definitely left a bad taste in the mouth of most fans. Â Now the news comes down that Ronnie O’Brien has been packed up and shipped out to free up some cap space. Â Add in the expected departure of Lima, the likely move of Sealy, and the loss of Riley in the expansion draft, and we are left with more holes than we ended the season with. Â Our only additions have been two draft picks and an unproven USL player.
But all this would probably be acceptable if it wasn’t for the manner in which business has been conducted by the Quakes lately. Â It’s clear from O’Brien’s interview with Center Line Soccer that he is none too pleased with the way in which the Quakes waited until the last minute before cutting their ties with him. Â This is a sentiment that I definitely share. Â What is going on with the Quakes, seriously? Â The last game of the season left me with a feeling of great optimism. Â Then the Quakes decide to play hardball with a key player and fan favorite, Joe Cannon, asking him to take a pay cut and not picking up the option on his contract in a dangerous game of brinkmanship. Â Now instead of saving face, the Quakes have decided to shaft another key player and fan favorite (O’Brien).
It seems like Doyle and some of the big shots at the top are attempting to translate Moneyball into soccer terms. Â Seemed like a good fit at first: cash-strapped league with a salary cap, building a championship team from bargain parts, sounded like the same old Quakes recipe for success. Â But now we see the ugly side of what it means: treating players as if they are expendable parts, no matter their contribution and commitment. Â If there’s one sport where team chemistry and continuity is key to success, it’s soccer. Â Moneyball won’t work here. Â You can’t dismantle and build up a team every year and hope to lay the foundation for championships. Â Our glory years were directly a result of having a team that believed in one another, the club, and the fans. Â I fear that Moneyball MLS style will destroy morale, chemistry, and make San Jose an uninviting destination for any player we want to sign. Â
All the while, we are making room in our cap for a top-notch forward. Â No one will deny that we need such a player. Â But in pursuit of that piece of the puzzle we are punching new holes we may not be able to fix. Â Word to Doyle and company: keep Moneyball as far away from the Quakes as possible. Â Being cutthroat will lead us nowhere and as fans we want loyalty shown to those players who show loyalty to us. Â
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Comments
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Welcome back! Great post. Losing O’Brien was a mistake.
Posted from
United States
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It would help if you defined “moneyball.”
Posted from
United States -
Steven:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moneyball
Lew Wolff also owns the Oakland As. Billy Beane is a “consultant” for the Quakes and a huge soccer fan who is actively working to convert his Moneyball tactics to professional soccer.
Oh lookie… at the bottom of that wikipedia entry. Brad Pitt is now attached to the upcoming movie so soon everyone will know what the eff Moneyball is. Hooray.
Posted from
United States -
Melissa:
I am well aware that there is a book about Billy Beane’s approach to running the Oakland Athletics. Watching the phenomenon play out over the past few years, I have noticed how often people use the word “moneyball” as shorthand for whatever it is they want to criticize. Beane’s philosophies on running a franchise can not be reduced to “building from bargain parts.” I was hoping Ian would offer some details about his understanding of “Moneyball” with specifics. I said it would help if he defined “moneyball” because I felt he was being vague about the concept, and I looked forward to something more precise.
Finally, while I agree that continuity has advantages, I’m not sure the Earthquakes are the best example of this. The Quakes went from the laughing stock of MLS to the league champions when they hired a new coach taking on his first head coaching job (who then hired an inexperienced ex-player as his assistant), and added Ekelund, Donovan, Lagos, Agoos, and DeRosario to the roster. I don’t think you can credit continuity for that first MLS title.
Posted from
United States -
Some interesting points Steven. I’m not much of a baseball fan, to be honest, so my understanding of Moneyball is mostly regarding Beane’s attempts to translate the philosophy into soccer terms. The key thrust of it seems to be that through in-depth statistical analysis, you can identify players whose monetary value is lower than it should be according to their statistical value. Thus, you can then find “bargain” players who can contribute more than their value and status would indicate. Using this approach, a team with less resources can build a competitive team.
The problem is that while baseball is a sport with a million different statistics which can be endlessly analyzed, soccer is a sport that has traditionally been less easily quantified. This has been changing in recent years, an example being the distance covered statistic they flash sometimes. Beane has made some presentations to Premiership teams, outlining how Moneyball statistical analysis could be used in soccer to identify high value, low cost players.
My problem is that I am skeptical that statistical analysis can be as useful in identifying players in soccer as it has been in baseball. I believe that there are many aspects of a soccer player’s game that can’t be pinned down as statistics. I may be wrong, but that’s my feeling. I also feel that plugging players in an out of the lineup every years as the A’s seem to do will have a detrimental effect on the team. The top teams in the MLS are usually those with continuity (think Houston, New England, even Columbus was built up slowly). I may also be wrong in blaming Moneyball philosophy for the Quakes’ treatment of Cannon and O’Brien, but there has been a marked shift in this Quakes organization from the past Quakes organization as regards treatment of players. Your example of the 2001 team is correct in that that championship was not based on continuity, but the teams of the succeeding years were definitely built on a core group with a premium placed on teamwork, hard work, and discipline. Many players in those years credited the player-friendly atmosphere that Yallop creates with the team’s success. I worry that cutthroat cost-benefit analysis leaves much to be desired.
Posted from
United States -
this way of business definitely leaves a bitter taste in everyone’s mouth who is associated with the quakes, but after witnessing the moneyball approach being utilized by the a’s, i would have to say that everyone needs to wait until the final product is assembled.
yes, soccer needs continuity above any other sport, but a dozen or so games together for last years final squad is not much to take apart…sure they looked like a quality bunch, but it was clearly lacking that top-notch finisher up top.
IF Doyle manages to secure that elusive top-notch finisher, then we will all forget about these tumultuous times. But if not, well then, it is truly a shame, but nonetheless a risk that was worth taking.
Posted from
Australia -
Holiday break! I need to use that one!
Posted from
United States -
Cutthroat cost-benefit analysis is the nature of the beast when working on a $1.8 million cap.
Posted from
United States -
Ian, that sounds about right … “Moneyball” involves identifying areas that are undervalued and working those areas to your advantage. I think you’re right about stats and soccer at this point in time, although the work of people like Voros McCracken should change this. But I think what Beane is doing isn’t relying on stats, but on knowledge in general, wherever it comes from.
Posted from
United States
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